These are illustrative scenarios, not actual project or supplier data. Inputs and method boundaries govern each result.
Illustrative study
A contribution-positive customer, an unfunded growth path
Establish the exact cohort, contribution and working-capital timing reference.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: Reference supplied input slate
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Faster supplied collection
Change only the receivable-days assumption; no automatic debt recovery or price response is estimated.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"receivableDays": 7}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Higher supplied starting price
Change only starting price, retaining acquisition and retention; this is an exogenous comparison, not a demand forecast.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"price": 105}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Higher supplied acquisition budget
Change only acquisition spend at unchanged CAC; no funnel conversion or capacity response is inferred.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"acquisitionBudget": 30000}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Discount and acquisition package
Supply a lower price and greater acquisition budget jointly; their causal connection is not estimated.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"price": 72, "acquisitionBudget": 30000}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Higher operating-cost envelope
Represent an externally specified additional operating envelope; the engine contains no capacity constraint or step trigger.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"fixedCosts": 33000}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Lower supplied monthly churn
Change only churn; no intervention efficacy, expense or customer-selection change is estimated.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"churn": 2}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Longer supplied payable terms
Expose a modelled cash benefit whose actual contractual eligibility must remain a separate gate.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"payableDays": 90}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
A separately supplied opening-cash envelope
Change only opening cash; this does not constitute a financing offer or permission to spend.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"startingCash": 350000}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Starting service cost exceeds price
Expose negative starting contribution and the unavailable starting-price break-even denominator.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"variableCost": 100}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
No acquisitions in the business path
Separate hypothetical one-customer value from the business path when no new customers are acquired.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"acquisitionBudget": 0}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Complete churn after each first service month
Expose the timing boundary: each cohort has a first service month and no surviving customers thereafter.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"churn": 100, "expansion": 0}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
A shorter appraisal window
Change only horizon; omitted later contributions and unreleased working capital must not be called terminal value.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"months": 12}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗Illustrative study
Supplied contraction in retained-customer price
Change only retained-customer price expansion to contraction; logo survival is still distinct from revenue retention.
What changes
- Case: Authored exogenous intervention
- Changes: {"expansion": -1}
- Held constant: Every field not listed in changes; all cases retain constant supplied assumptions within their own horizon.
- Probability: No empirical frequency, causal effect estimate or confidence is assigned.
Limits of the study
- All inputs and outputs are explicitly illustrative, not measured customers or financial performance.
- Homogeneous expected cohorts, immediate first-month service, constant monthly acquisition, no tax, capex, financing, seasonality or terminal release.
- Customer service capacity, consent, supplier terms and committed funding are outside compute and require separately completed evidence records.
Open this case in the model↗