Project finance and capital resilience
Capital with a long horizon
A durable financing structure is tested against cash-flow failure modes before headline returns.
167 pages · Edition 2026-10-10
ICM · Research & Decision Studio
EDITION 2026-10-10
Perspective, made useful.
Follow the evidence. Open the model. Find the decision worth making.
The decision instrumentIllustrative composition
The decision instrument
- 01
Evidence
What is known. What is assumed.
- 02
Model
Make the mechanism inspectable.
- 03
Decision
Change a premise. See what survives.
Capital · Operations · Technology · Growth
Continue into the library01 · A library with a point of view
Depth belongs
to the question.
Each study starts with a decision, follows a distinct method and makes the limits of its evidence visible. Its companion environment lets you challenge the assumptions yourself.
- Complete papers
- 10
- Implemented tools
- 10
- Published paper pages
- 1531
Read the complete studies as PDF or by chapter. Open their worked cases in the companion models and follow each source at the point of use.
Industrial logistics and network capacity
Corridors are systems
Resolving the chain bottleneck produces more useful capacity than expanding the most visible asset.
148 pages · Edition 2026-10-10
Portfolio prioritisation and strategic options
Choosing what deserves capital
A transparent preference model plus sensitivity is more defensible than one opaque ranking.
148 pages · Edition 2026-10-10
02 · From argument to experiment
Ten ways to
test a premise.
Deterministic decision models expose equations, inputs, units and assumptions. Adjust a case, inspect sensitivity and keep an exportable trail.
Project finance
Capital studio
Find the cash-flow structure that survives a hurdle rate and debt-service stress.
- Build the cash-flow schedule
- Inspect return and coverage
- Challenge the hurdle rate
Industrial logistics
Corridor lab
Locate the binding stage, expose stranded expansion and price the whole chain.
- Define the serial chain
- Locate the constraint
- Test the next bottleneck
Strategic prioritisation
Portfolio compass
Make preferences visible, inspect the efficient frontier and test ranking fragility.
- State the preferences
- Inspect tradeoffs
- Challenge the ranking
Lifecycle procurement
Procurement workbench
Compare like-for-like lifecycle costs, replacement burdens and negotiation hurdles.
- Normalise the bids
- Compare the lifecycle
- Set the negotiation hurdle
Decision science
Decision lab
Discover whether an imperfect test changes the preferred action enough to pay for itself.
- Define actions and stakes
- Update the evidence
- Price the information
Execution scheduling
Delivery atlas
Expose precedence, schedule float and the assumptions behind a completion estimate.
- Define dependencies
- Find the critical path
- Challenge completion confidence
Energy and transition economics
Transition lab
Reconcile energy before pricing abatement, then expose the effect of sequence and factor choice.
- Build the physical balance
- Sequence the measures
- Price incremental abatement
Capability architecture
Transformation map
Make prerequisite bundles, constrained capacity and benefit assumptions explicit.
- Map prerequisite architecture
- Expose benefit assumptions
- Fit a constrained sequence
Risk and assurance
Risk observatory
Connect event mechanisms to control reliability and challenge expected-loss resilience.
- Describe the loss mechanism
- Inspect the bowtie
- Stress the control system
Customer economics
Growth engine
Reconcile acquisition cohorts, contribution and working-capital cash before celebrating revenue.
- Construct the cohorts
- Inspect customer contribution
- Reconcile growth to cash
03 · Keep the connections
One considered
working surface.
Follow a citation, compare approaches, generate a reading brief or connect a research question to a runnable model. Your notes and scenarios remain under your control.