ICM · Research & Decision Studio · transition-lab · Model 1.1.1 · Illustrative inputs
Energy and transition economics
Transition lab
Reconcile energy before pricing abatement, then expose the effect of sequence and factor choice.
Transition / balanceIllustrative composition
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ICM · Transition lab · Model 1.1.1 · Default illustrative record
Default illustrative result
The annual electricity balance moves from 50,000 to 48,500 MWh, split into 26,500 grid and 22,000 renewable MWh. Emissions change by 10,135 tCO2e/year. The package has a negative NPV under the supplied prices, factors and 15-year horizon.
| Metric | Value | Unit | Calculation boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual emissions reduction | 10135 | tCO2e/year | |
| Final energy demand | 48500 | MWh/year | |
| Package net present value | -4365149.279089331 | USD | Energy savings less measure opex and capex. |
| Package annualised abatement cost | 50.318540094109764 | USD/tCO2e |
| Order | Measure | Final demandMWh/year | GridMWh/year | Renewable usedMWh/year | CurtailmentMWh/year | EmissionstCO2e/year | Incremental abatementtCO2e/year | Energy-cost savingUSD/year | Incremental annual costUSD/year | Marginal costUSD/tCO2e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Process efficiency | 44000 | 44000 | 0 | 0 | 19800 | 2700 | 720000 | -389609.0921535519 | -144.29966376057476 |
| 2 | Electrified process | 48500 | 48500 | 0 | 0 | 21825 | -2025 | -540000 | 758610.2263912341 | Unavailable |
| 3 | Renewable supply | 48500 | 26500 | 22000 | 0 | 12365 | 9460 | 660000 | 140977.2696161203 | 14.902459790287557 |
| Illustrative case | Grid factortCO2e/MWh | Energy-price multiplier | Annual reductiontCO2e/year | Net annual savingsUSD/year | Package NPVUSD | Package annual costUSD/tCO2e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supplied energy prices | 0.45 | 1 | 10135 | 670000 | -4365149.279089331 | 50.318540094109764 |
| Energy prices −30% | 0.45 | 0.7 | 10135 | 418000 | -6522137.908446777 | 75.18287161853009 |
| Energy prices +30% | 0.45 | 1.3 | 10135 | 922000 | -2208160.649731885 | 25.454208569689442 |
| Grid factor −50% | 0.225 | 1 | 4847.5 | 670000 | -4365149.279089331 | 105.20441544173336 |
| Sequence | Energy demandMWh/year | Annual emissionstCO2e/year | Package NPVUSD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supplied order | 48500 | 12365 | -4365149.279089331 |
| Reversed order | 47960 | 12122 | -3810495.060111702 |
Inputs behind this result
| Assumption and unit | Exact supplied value |
|---|---|
| Baseline electricity (MWh/year) | 50000 |
| Grid emissions factor (tCO2e/MWh) | 0.45 |
| Renewable emissions factor (tCO2e/MWh) | 0.02 |
| Grid electricity price (USD/MWh) | 120 |
| Renewable electricity price (USD/MWh) | 90 |
| Investment horizon (years) | 15 |
| Discount rate (% per year) | 8 |
| Measure | Reduction in remaining demand% | Additional demandMWh/year | Additional renewable supplyMWh/year | Upfront capexUSD | Annual measure opexUSD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Process efficiency | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2400000 | 50000 |
| Electrified process | 0 | 4500 | 0 | 1700000 | 20000 |
| Renewable supply | 0 | 0 | 22000 | 6000000 | 100000 |
Transparent method
- Each measure reduces remaining energy demand, adds any new demand, then adds renewable supply. Renewable use is capped at demand; excess supply is curtailed. State updates use the canonical decimal input values before numeric display conversion.
- Annual emissions = grid MWh × grid factor + renewable MWh × renewable factor. The balance is evaluated before numeric display conversion; separately displayed totals can hide a small genuine reduction.
- Annualised capex = capex / annuity present-value factor. Incremental annual cost = annualised capex + measure opex − incremental energy-cost saving.
- Marginal abatement cost = incremental annual cost / positive incremental annual emissions reduction. Sequence determines the attribution.
- Marginal abatement cost is evaluated for each strictly positive canonical decimal emissions reduction, including small positive values, without an absolute floor. A zero or negative reduction has no defined abatement denominator.
- The reversed-order physical diagnostic compares the canonical decimal annual emissions balances exactly before numeric display conversion. It reports a genuine order effect without an absolute emissions floor or floating-point allowance.
Limits
- Electricity-only balance. Added demand does not earn an assumed avoided fossil-fuel credit.
- User factors require an appropriate geographic and accounting boundary. No market-based claims, embodied/lifecycle emissions or certification.
- Annual constant balances and costs, no dispatch, degradation, carbon-credit revenue or terminal value.
- Demand, supply, emissions and monetary balances use the canonical decimal representation of validated inputs. The discount annuity factor and displayed Numbers are approximations. Digits lost during JSON parsing cannot be recovered; results outside finite numeric display range are rejected explicitly. Mathematical precision does not establish measurement accuracy, materiality or reporting eligibility.
- Numerical input precision: use zero or absolute values of at least 0.000000001. Smaller nonzero inputs are rejected explicitly.