ICM · Research & Decision Studio · growth-engine · Model 1.0.1 · Illustrative inputs

Customer economics

Growth engine

Reconcile acquisition cohorts, contribution and working-capital cash before celebrating revenue.

Model 1.0.1 · Illustrative inputs

Growth / cohortsIllustrative composition

An illustrative layering of customer cohorts and their cash connection. No curve or surface represents observed growth.

The interactive model requires JavaScript. This saved default illustration remains readable if the runtime is unavailable. Values are computed from the canonical model at build time; they describe fictional inputs, with full calculation precision.

ICM · Growth engine · Model 1.0.1 · Default illustrative record

Default illustrative result

Expected new customers are 75 per month. The 24-month contribution LTV is 971.94 USD/customer, or 4.05× CAC. CAC contribution payback occurs in month 5. Closing cash is 218,526.01 USD; the lowest cash balance, including opening cash, is -58,025.46 USD.

Default result metrics
Metric	Value	Unit	Calculation boundary
Finite-horizon contribution LTV	971.9445184965266	USD/customer	24 months; excludes acquisition cost and fixed costs.
Contribution LTV / CAC	4.049768827068861	×
CAC contribution payback	5	months	First cumulative expected contribution recovery, checked with exact canonical decimal inputs.
Additional opening cash for trough	58025.462072332506	USD	Keeps modelled cash at or above zero.

Monthly operating and cash reconciliation
Month	Active customers	RevenueUSD	Variable costsUSD	ContributionUSD	Acquisition spendUSD	Fixed costsUSD	Operating profitUSD	Working capitalUSD	Working-capital changeUSD	Cash flowUSD	Closing cashUSD
1	75	6375	1800	4575	18000	22000	-35425	5595	5595	-41020	118980
2	147.375	12557.634375	3537	9020.634375	18000	22000	-30979.365625	11024.934374999999	5429.934374999999	-36409.299999999996	82570.70000000001
3	217.21687500000002	18553.707757734373	5213.205	13340.502757734374	18000	22000	-26659.49724226563	16294.652257734377	5269.717882734378	-31929.215125000006	50641.48487500001
4	284.614284375	24368.849626144736	6830.742825	17538.106801144735	18000	22000	-22461.893198855265	21408.861068644735	5114.208810910359	-27576.102009765622	23065.382865234387
5	349.65278442187497	30008.519588675816	8391.666826125	21616.852762550814	18000	22000	-18383.147237449186	26372.130630688316	4963.269562043581	-23346.416799492767	-281.0339342583793
6	412.4149369671093	35478.012510087516	9897.958487210624	25580.05402287689	18000	22000	-14419.945977123109	31188.897165629573	4816.766534941256	-19236.712512064365	-19517.746446322744
7	472.9804141732605	40782.463482595624	11351.529940158252	29430.93354243737	18000	22000	-10569.066457562629	35863.46717519371	4674.5700095641405	-15243.63646712677	-34761.38291344952
8	531.4260996771964	45926.852647008294	12754.226392252713	33172.62625475558	18000	22000	-6827.373745244418	40400.02121036545	4536.554035171735	-11363.927780416154	-46125.31069386567
9	587.8261861884945	50916.00986838481	14107.828468523869	36808.18139986094	18000	22000	-3191.818600139057	44802.617532024466	4402.596321659017	-7594.414921798074	-53719.725615663745
10	642.2522696718971	55754.619270606294	15414.054472125532	40340.56479848076	18000	22000	340.5647984807583	49075.19566601856	4272.578133994095	-3932.0133355133366	-57651.73895117708
11	694.7734402333807	60447.22363411574	16674.562565601136	43772.6610685146	18000	22000	3772.6610685146006	53221.579855688586	4146.384189670025	-373.72312115542445	-58025.462072332506
12	745.4563698252124	64998.22866095629	17890.9528758051	47107.275785151185	18000	22000	7107.275785151185	57245.48241477408	4023.9025590854944	3083.3732260656907	-54942.088846266815
13	794.36539688133	69411.90711111193	19064.769525151918	50347.13758596001	18000	22000	10347.137585960008	61150.506983546096	3905.024568772016	6442.113017187992	-48499.97582907882
14	841.5626079904833	73692.40281403411	20197.5025917716	53494.90022226251	18000	22000	13494.900222262513	64940.15169093308	3789.644707386986	9705.255514875527	-38794.720314203296
15	887.1079167108165	77843.73455912062	21290.590001059598	56553.14455806103	18000	22000	16553.14455806103	68617.81222532813	3677.6605343950505	12875.48402366598	-25919.236290537316
16	931.0591396259377	81869.79986879915	22345.419351022505	59524.38051777665	18000	22000	19524.380517776648	72186.7848166894	3568.9725913612638	15955.407926415384	-9963.828364121931
17	973.47206973903	85774.37865775812	23363.32967373672	62411.0489840214	18000	22000	22411.0489840214	75650.2691324722	3463.4843157828	18947.5646682386	8983.736304116668
18	1014.400547298164	89561.13678176026	24345.613135155938	65215.52364660432	18000	22000	25215.52364660432	79011.37108985936	3361.10195738716	21854.42168921716	30838.15799333383
19	1053.8965281427281	93233.62947937063	25293.516675425475	67940.11280394516	18000	22000	27940.112803945158	82273.10558668626	3261.7344968269026	24678.378307118255	55516.536300452084
20	1092.0101496577327	96795.30470983061	26208.243591785584	70587.06111804504	18000	22000	30587.061118045036	85438.3991533902	3165.293566703942	27421.767551341094	82938.30385179317
21	1128.789794419712	100249.50639021146	27090.95506607309	73158.55132413837	18000	22000	33158.551324138374	88510.09252824646	3071.6933748562587	30086.857949282115	113025.16180107529
22	1164.282151615022	103599.4775348868	27942.77163876053	75656.70589612627	18000	22000	35656.70589612627	91490.94315809055	2980.8506298440916	32675.855266282175	145701.01706735746
23	1198.5322763084964	106848.3633002716	28764.774631403914	78083.58866886768	18000	22000	38083.588668867684	94383.62762666323	2892.684468572683	35190.904200295	180891.92126765248
24	1231.5836466376988	109999.21393768588	29558.007519304774	80441.2064183811	18000	22000	40441.2064183811	97190.74401265381	2807.116385990579	37634.09003239052	218526.011300043

One-customer contribution and retention curve
Customer agemonths	Retention probability%	Retained customer priceUSD/month	Expected contributionUSD/month	Discounted contributionUSD	Undiscounted cumulativeUSD
1	100	85	61	61	61
2	96.5	85.425	59.275124999999996	58.68824257425742	120.275125
3	93.1225	85.85212499999997	57.598245103124974	56.463332127364936	177.87337010312498
4	89.86321249999999	86.28138562499997	55.96805391213817	54.32204172580455	233.84142401526316
5	86.71800006249998	86.71279255312497	54.3832794854144	52.261262653998806	288.22470350067755
6	83.68287006031248	87.14635651589057	52.842683471014375	50.27800016373446	341.0673869716919
7	80.75396960820154	87.58208829847003	51.345060260806356	48.36936937253274	392.41244723249827
8	77.92758067191448	88.01999873996238	49.88923616424282	46.53259130593742	442.30168339674105
9	75.20011534839747	88.46009873366218	48.47406860140486	44.76498907885402	490.7757519981459
10	72.56811131120357	88.90239922733046	47.09844531493089	43.06398421122707	537.8741973130768
11	70.02822741531143	89.34691122346712	45.76128360045123	41.42709307349445	583.635480913528
12	67.57723945577554	89.79364577958444	44.461529555154534	39.851923457403885	628.0970104686826
13	65.21203607482339	90.24261400848235	43.19815734411752	38.3361712679193	671.2951678128001
14	62.92961481220457	90.69382707852476	41.97016848403342	36.8776173320826	713.2653362968335
15	60.7270782937774	91.14729621391737	40.776591143980234	35.474124320830484	754.0419274408138
16	58.6016305534952	91.60303269498695	39.61647946287482	34.12363377989649	793.6584069036886
17	56.550573484122864	92.06104785846188	38.48891288326352	32.824163266053716	832.1473197869522
18	54.571303412178565	92.52135309775416	37.39299550110564	31.573803585077226	869.5403152880577
19	52.66130779275231	92.98395986324292	36.32785543121107	30.37071612792274	905.8681707192688
20	50.81816202000597	93.44887966255912	35.29264418799827	29.21313030173423	941.1608149072671
21	49.03952634930577	93.91612406087191	34.28653608124459	28.099341052404167	975.4473509885116
22	47.32314292708006	94.38570468117626	33.30872762650553	27.027706475518528	1008.7560786150171
23	45.66683292463226	94.85763320458213	32.358436969885275	25.99664551262365	1041.1145155849024
24	44.06849377227013	95.33192137060504	31.43490332684571	25.00463572985356	1072.549418911748

Acquisition cohort contribution ledger
Acquisition month	Expected customers acquired	Revenue through horizonUSD	Contribution through horizonUSD
1	75	109999.21393768587	80441.20641838112
2	75	106848.36330027158	78083.58866886768
3	75	103599.4775348868	75656.70589612628
4	75	100249.50639021145	73158.55132413836
5	75	96795.3047098306	70587.06111804502
6	75	93233.62947937062	67940.11280394516
7	75	89561.13678176024	65215.52364660433
8	75	85774.3786577581	62411.04898402141
9	75	81869.79986879913	59524.38051777664
10	75	77843.73455912061	56553.14455806103
11	75	73692.4028140341	53494.90022226251
12	75	69411.90711111191	50347.13758596001
13	75	64998.22866095628	47107.27578515119
14	75	60447.22363411573	43772.6610685146
15	75	55754.61927060629	40340.56479848076
16	75	50916.009868384805	36808.18139986094
17	75	45926.85264700829	33172.62625475558
18	75	40782.46348259562	29430.933542437368
19	75	35478.012510087516	25580.05402287689
20	75	30008.519588675816	21616.852762550814
21	75	24368.849626144736	17538.106801144735
22	75	18553.707757734373	13340.502757734372
23	75	12557.634375	9020.634375
24	75	6375	4575

Inputs behind this result

Current general assumptions
Assumption and unit	Exact supplied value
Model horizon (months)	24
Monthly acquisition spend (USD)	18000
Acquisition cost per customer (USD)	240
Starting monthly price (USD/customer)	85
Monthly variable cost (USD/customer)	24
Monthly logo churn (%)	3.5
Monthly retained-customer price expansion (%)	0.5
Monthly fixed operating cost (USD)	22000
Receivable days	30
Inventory days	12
Payable days	25
Opening cash (USD)	160000
Monthly contribution discount rate (%)	1

Download exact default inputs and output

Transparent method

Expected new customers each month = acquisition spend / CAC. Acquisition occurs at the beginning of the month, with first revenue in that month.
For cohort age a: active customers = cohort size × (1 − churn)^a; price = initial price × (1 + expansion)^a.
Contribution = revenue − active customers × variable cost. Monthly operating profit subtracts acquisition spend and fixed costs.
Working capital = revenue × receivable days / 30 + variable cost total × (inventory days − payable days) / 30. Cash flow = operating profit − change in working capital.
Finite-horizon contribution LTV discounts one customer’s expected contributions at ages 0 to horizon − 1. CAC payback uses undiscounted cohort contribution. Its first recovery crossing is evaluated from exact canonical JSON-number decimals, without a numerical tolerance.

Limits

Expected fractional customers and constant acquisition, churn, expansion and cost assumptions. Months have 30 days for working capital.
Finite-horizon LTV is not infinite lifetime value. No taxes, capex, financing, terminal value, seasonality or saturation.
Customers surviving at horizon generate no terminal value; working capital is not released at horizon.
Numerical input precision: use zero or absolute values of at least 0.000000001. Smaller nonzero inputs are rejected explicitly.